Right now, the tablet market is on the cusp of something big. That said, there are some analysts out there who think the boom is premature – that the actual technology isn’t useful enough to support a blowout to 9 figure sales like some are calling for. I don’t know which way the wind is blowing right now – after all, I personally use three devices a day to get my work done and it probably won’t change anytime soon.

But, I foresee tablet technology making big strides in the years to come so that we will not only use the tablets for more tasks, but manufacturers will start producing devices designed specifically for one or another task. Right now, most of the new tablets on the market are designed for entertainment before productivity. Apple is happy to push the iPad on corporate customers, but that doesn’t mean the device is specifically designed for the enterprise. Soon enough, there will be devices that are.

Specialization Drives Innovation

Right now, there are dozens of companies trying to duplicate the success Apple has had with the iPad. That means most tablets are similar to the iPad in their design, execution and features. Entertainment and consumer interest comes first – smaller tweaks come second.

In the future, though, tablet technology is going to grow – it will expand to the point that that it can be used specifically for tasks in unique industries like medicine, education, and the enterprise.

I can see a day when tablet technology is used in the classroom to drive innovation in both teaching and learning. Our children will use tablets to access their homework, discuss projects with teachers and have conferences. We will check grades and go over assignments remotely and when it comes time for college, the opportunity to learn remotely will surge.

Productivity will increase dramatically as enterprise specific tablets hit the market. Right now, tablets make it easier to access our work, check email, and even talk to our colleagues, but they don’t quite replace our desktops or laptops as dedicated workstations. As the technology develops, that will change. We’ll be editing documents, collaborating on projects and securely moving files between multiple users seamlessly.

I firmly believe that the best way for any company to succeed in a niche is to find what they are best at and focus all of their energy into that area. Specialization creates new ideas and helps to build an industry from novelty into an integral part of society. The tablet industry is on the cusp of doing just that – it might take a year or it might take five years. There’s no way to know when the rush for market share will die down and companies start to turn toward ways they can dominate a small part of the niche.

It will happen though – it’s the only way anyone will survive in a field with so many options. And when it happens, the tablet market will become better for it, and we might just have two or three tablets for different parts of our lives.

A lot of people argue right now about what the perfect tablet looks like. Should it have this feature or that feature? Does it need Android or Windows or iOS? Can anyone but Apple but profitable? There are a lot of little quirks in the tablet market right now that are drawing attention from analysts, but one of the biggest is probably display size.

Can a successful tablet hit the market with a display size of less than 10”? Steve Jobs doesn’t think so, and yet we have news that Apple may be preparing a new product that is essentially a larger iPod Touch, checking in at 5” instead of the 3.5” that it sits at now. And that brings up even more questions. Not only does display size matter, but how small is too small for a tablet to be a tablet anymore? When does it become a media player or gaming device?

The Profit Margin Issue

Right now, one of the major issues for most manufacturers is that Apple has a pretty big portion of the component market cornered. With all that cash sitting around, the company can afford to make moves like they did in January to shore up $3.9 billion in components. And Apple’s estimated share of the display component market is growing larger constantly as they prepare to expand their iPad offerings.

So, it drives up the costs for other companies to build their own 10” screens and when they launch, like the Xoom will next week, the cost is much higher than many would like (the Xoom will sell for $799 without subsidies). Other devices, however, have launched at smaller sizes and have kept cost down. The Galaxy Tab and Dell Streak 7 are both 7” tablets that sell for less than $500 with subsidies while sporting decent technical specs. And while sales are brisk, they are nowhere near in line with Apple’s.

Some say it is because of Apple’s dominating lead, but others point out that a tablet of only 7” starts to look an awful lot like an oversized media player. Typing on the screen and performing daily tasks gets a bit tougher, though not impossible at that size. I don’t think there is degradation in usability, but many people will look at a small device and compare it to the iPad their friend or neighbor has and wonder, why.

What’s the Perfect Size?

There is no perfect size for a tablet screen. Just like some users prefer a netbook screen of only 10” to a 26” monitor on their desk, others will prefer a 7” tablet they can place in their pocket to a 10” screen that requires a bag to carry.

What I’m really interested in right now is what consumers are willing to purchase. How will manufacturers balance price and function to effectively take a larger portion of the market away from Apple? In 2011 we will see a number of new 7 inch tablets along with many new 10 inch models. Assuredly, the 10” tablets will continue to sell better, especially because Apple will keep their iPad at 10” only.

However, with new options opening up in oversized media players and low cost devices, the market is still far from set, and through it all, display size will likely play a major role in consumer interest.

Since CES I’ve felt like we’re building to something – a showdown of sorts slated for this spring. With dozens of new devices coming out in the next few weeks and even a handful of new operating systems set to land, the tablet market is about to change in ways we’ve never seen before. So, what does it mean for consumers? Let’s take a closer look at the state of the tablet market.

Sales and New Products

In 2010, there were 17 million tablet sales, most of which were Apple iPads. In 2011 that number is expected to climb north of 40 million and include a lot more Android and Windows devices. How much more of the share will be for other manufacturers remains to be seen, but one thing we can be sure about is that the ecosystem model developed by Apple isn’t going anywhere.

People want a device that provides a complete system. They want App stores and operating systems they come to know and trust throughout the day. They want a device that is operational but also a part of their identity – and while PCs and phones have done this, tablets stand to be even more of a cultural touchstone because of their mobility and the fact that they will be shared and used frequently in the presence of others.

Developments Coming Soon

As of two days ago, the signs still point to a release of the Motorola Xoom tablet on February 24^th. The Best Buy ad leaking the launch date also pegs the price point at $799 and shows a variety of data plans for those wanting high speed access.

When the Xoom launches it will signal the opening salvo in a yearlong back and forth between Apple and everyone else. While Apple clearly dominated in 2010 it was mostly because they blindsided the market. Other developers were not ready for the raw demand for tablets while Apple played the cards and guessed right. They subsequently cleaned up because of it.

In 2011, things won’t be so simple. New devices will likely come out with better technical specs and stronger performance numbers than the iPad, even after the iPad 2 launches. Apple will surely upgrade their device in April with a dual core processor, much more powerful screen and at least one camera, but will it be 4G? Will it support SD slots? Will it have HDMI out? These and a dozen other questions will fill the articles of tech writers everywhere and will likely impact how consumers respond to the flood of new devices.

And then there are the other guys. We cannot forget about RIM and their Playbook release set for some time in spring or summer. MeeGo may see its first major release in 2011 as the open source OS continues to gain steam. HP continues to promise a slew of new options in WebOS for tablets and Windows 7, despite a lack of new innovations at CES will continue to appear on new devices, including a number of convertible tablet/netbooks.

If 2010 was the year of the tablet, 2011 is the year of the consumer – users will have more options and greater opportunities to make choices that reflect their needs and desires in a device. Now, we just need to sit back and wait to see what the consumers decide.

One thing that a lot of tablet PC prognosticators like to do is gauge and measure the market, either while a device is available or weeks to months ahead of its launch. So, when we do get data, inevitably it will be thrown around a dozen different ways before we understand what it really means.

Sometimes, numbers are simple. Estimates of more than 13 million iPads beings old seem realistic considering the demand for the device and the capacity at most retailers. However, the numbers for the Samsung Galaxy Tab, which reported to have sold 2 million units, are not quite the same. Usually, statements like this mean “2 million shipped to retailers” not actually sold to end users. We don’t know how many that means, but company statements have already tempered it quite a bit.

Measuring the Future

What does that mean for companies that have a new device coming out in 2011? What does it take to create a mainstream device and how does the public generally respond to certain features? No one knows. In fact, right now, the only devices on the market to draw data from are the mega-selling iPad and a dozen or so smaller devices with varying reviews and sales numbers – none of them with outstanding selling points.

I think that niche devices like the Playbook will actually sell decently well to their respective markets, though whether they can be mega-sellers in the mass market remains to be seen. I also think that there will probably be at least one other breakout device in 2011 – most likely the Xoom, though LG’s new tablet is starting to look very attractive with the announcement of multi-carrier 4G support and 3D playback.

We have no idea what will drive end-user interest. Reviews, technical specs, and usefulness have never really been the determining factors in what sells in the technology industry. Apple’s products are never the most powerful or the most feature-rich – they are often the “coolest” and that works for them. So, to be successful, does a company need to “out-cool” Apple or can they simply find their way into the niche through a variety of highly useful, mass-market features?

It remains to be seen. But, I have a feeling in 2011 we’ll be doing a lot of number parsing as sales numbers like that of the Galaxy Tab start to pour in.

If last year was the year of the tablet, one has to accept that it was primarily the iPad that gets credit for that. So, if 2011 is the year of the tablet part 2, at least we get to spread the credit to a second platform this year as Android prepares to take over a major chunk of the tablet market thanks to the release of Honeycomb (3.0) and the variety of new devices that will go with it. So, what will drive success for the Android platform in 2011 – here are three possible sources.

Diversity

First up is diversity. With so many devices set to sport the newest Android edition, we know we’ll have a lot of options to choose from this year. Motorola’s Xoom is at the top of the list for sure, but there are also new Android tablets coming from Toshiba, Asus, and Acer. I’m a huge fan of diversity in technology – it forces ingenuity in ways we can only ponder right now. It will be interesting to see who comes out ahead and what features allow them to do so.

Openness

To me, openness is one of the major reasons Android stands to win in 2011. As more users come into the tablet market, there will be a greater emphasis put on being able to do whatever you want with your device. Access to Flash, integration of custom apps, and security installations for enterprise users are all big on many wants lists – and the iPad cannot yet deliver those things. Whether Android can or not remains to be seen, but it certainly stands a chance.

Ideas

Ideas come out of an open platform and diversity in hardware options. That’s what I’m hoping to see as manufacturers try to stand out as a new option in the increasingly crowded tablet market. As the rhetoric heats up between Apple and Android device makers, the opportunity to see new things is only going to increase. Already, we’ve seen the Xoom with its selection of intriguing new features and just yesterday, Toshiba announced their new Honeycomb tablet would sport a swappable battery (something we’ve been hoping for in a tablet for months now).

The Other Side

Android tablets are set to make a huge impact on the market this year. However, it’s entirely up to the manufacturers of those devices to make it happen. Right now, we’re seeing rumors of a $799 Xoom tablet from Motorola and last year, Toshiba’s first tablet foray was a certified disaster, so having Android 3.0 isn’t exactly a slam dunk.

But, 2011 is definitely shaping up to be some kind of year for the tablet PC and right now I’m guessing that Android will have a LOT to do with that.